Category Archives: My Papers

Carbon Markets for 2012?

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Global carbon traded volume in 2011 were about 8 billion tCO2 up 19% compared to 2010, but the traded values were about euro 96 billions up only 4%. This was because carbon price was cheap; economic crisis in EU forced EU to issue more allowances (right to emit carbon) to its member states, leading to more supply but less demand. Carbon price traded yesterday was only about $3.5 per tCO2 down from $15 few months ago.

Japan, Canada, Russia decided not join second commitment of the Kyoto Protocol (2013-2020). This decision made carbon market in Japan become smaller and smaller.
Carbon markets have probably moved to New Zealand and Australia. However, because the two countries have less population, the size of the markets is still relatively small.

Implications for REDD+ projects:
REDD+ is somehow still attractive to EU buyers due probably to less investment costs, high carbon emission reduction potentials, and of course high risk, and because EU is still part of the Kyoto. Investors expect carbon price to go up about $10-12 for Kyoto’s second period starting from 2013-2020, but it is still uncertain.

Implications for REDD+ in Cambodia
REDD+’s Bilateral partnership: In addition to the already shrinking market, countries that decided to not ratify the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol will have difficulties in talking to UNFCCC parties because they are no longer a member of the Kyoto. This would mean that their proposed REDD+ guidelines or whatever guidelines under the bilateral partnership program would not be even listened to. Without approval, no one would buy REDD+ credits under any bilateral partnership scheme with non-Kyoto parties. Therefore, I think Cambodia needs to clarify the bilateral partnership program with the relevant countries.
EU Partners: Although EU markets are still uncerntain, 2nd commitment period will see increase in carbon price because EU has set a tight reduction target (20% by 2020, 50% by 2050). I think Cambodia should have some partners from EU because Cambodian government is committed to managing its forests under the REDD+ scheme
California (CA) Carbon Trading: CA adopted emission trading scheme in October 2011 and some trading begins this year. It also has increasing carbon markets, but they seemed to prefer credits from South America.
Australia Carbon Tax: from July 2012, Australia will impose a carbon tax of A$23/tCO2. So, carbon market there would increase as emitters have to offset their emissions. I think Cambodia may also want to find some carbon partners from Australia.

Well, my analysis is not always right.

Thanks for reading!

Estimation of Carbon Stocks

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During my fieldwork to Phnom Tbeng protected forests and forests in other part of Preah Vihear province, I had the opportunity to give short lecture on how carbon stocks in forests are estimated. Again, thank you to local foresters of the Forestry Administration for their help and cooperation.

Download the lecturenote here!

 

Sustainable Forest Management and Carbon Stocks

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Paper presented at the COP17 in Durban, South Africa

Abstract: Sustainable forest management (SFM) ensures the continuous flow of wood products and employment while improving the functionalities of forests. Until recently, many projects associated with the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) projects focused only on reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, conservation of carbon stocks, or enhancement of carbon sinks. REDD+ projects concerned with securing timber production while reducing emissions are very few in number. In this report, we discuss how SFM through adoption of appropriate logging practice can lead to a reduction in carbon emissions while securing timber in the tropics. Logging practices affect timber production, the structure of forests, and forest-dependent communities because of damages caused by logging itself and the large amounts of logging and wood wastes. By switching from conventional logging to reduced-impact logging practices, International Tropical Timber Organization producer countries could reduce carbon emissions by about 1.2 billion tCO2 year–1 while still producing about 100.4 million m3 of end-use wood for commercial consumption under a 50-year project cycle, results being dependent on the chosen scenario. Study results suggest that a policy of reduced-impact logging combined with a longer cutting cycle and certification scheme is appropriate for SFM projects as a part of the REDD+ scheme.

Download COP17 presentation here!

Working Paper on REL for REDD+ Project

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Estimating Reference Emission Level and Project Emission Level for REDD Projects in Tropical Forests

Nophea Sasaki
University of Hyogo

Abstract
The REDD scheme of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is a carbon-based compensation for projects that resulted in reducing carbon emissions or enhancing carbon sinks or both in tropical forests. However, estimating such emissions and sinks remains challenging, and thus making it impossible to estimate carbon revenues from managing tropical forests. Here, we estimated the reduced emissions and sinks by developing models for setting Reference Emission Level (REL) and Project Emission Level (PEL) for REDD projects in concession forests taking emissions under conventional logging (CVL) scenario as that of REL, and emissions under reduced impact logging (RIL) and RIL with liberation treatment (RIL) scenarios as that of PEL. By choosing Cambodia as a case study, REL under the current logging system of 25-year cutting cycle was estimated at 23.1 TgCO2 year-1. To determine an appropriate cutting cycle, we tested our models with four cutting cycles and found that a 50-year cutting cycle is more appropriate. Taking this 50-year cutting cycle for REDD project, PELs were estimated at 0.4 TgCO2 and -3.3 TgCO2 year-1 under RIL and RIL, respectively (- means sinks). After subtracting REL with PEL and leakages, annual carbon credits from managing 3.4 million ha of concession forests in Cambodia were estimated at 15.9-18.5 TgCO2 depending on chosen scenario. With a carbon price of $5 MgCO2-1, total revenues from the sales of carbon credits alone are $79.5-92.5 million annually. To ensure continued flow of wood supply from tropical forests while mitigating climate change, we suggest that new climate agreements adopt RIL or RIL for sustainable forest management in tropical countries.

Download paper here

Can you harvest timber but still avoid carbon emissions?

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Potential Carbon Sinks in Tropical Forests under the REDD+ Mechanism
Author: Nophea Sasaki
Download pre-print here

Accounting for up to 25% of global carbon emissions, tropical deforestation and forest degradation have increasingly brought international attention. The recognition of reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, forest conservation, sustainable forest management, and enhancing carbon sinks in tropical forests (REDD+) in the Copenhagen Accord and the pledge of $3.5 billion fast-start climate finance for REDD+ preparatory activities suggests that appropriate approaches to managing tropical forests become necessary. As REDD+ involves the carbon-based financial compensation, avoided carbon emissions from the forests needs to be assessed. Here, we develop a carbon stock model for projecting carbon stock changes under two management scenarios, namely the baseline (business-as-usual) and REDD+ management. Baseline scenario is the management of forest using conventional logging practice, while REDD+ scenario involves the use of reduced impact logging (RIL) and RIL plus liberation treatment (RIL+). Our results suggest that REDD+ scenario could avoid carbon emissions of 2.06 MgC ha−1 at the beginning of the management to 36.76-54.26 MgC ha−1 at year 60 of the management. The REDD+ revenues from carbon sales are estimated at just about $2 in the first year to $107 and $159 ha−1 under RIL and RIL+, respectively. REDD+ agreements will ensure the adoption of REDD+ scenario for managing tropical forests.

Citation:  Sasaki, N. (2011) Potential Carbon Sinks in Tropical Forests under the REDD+ Mechanism. FORMATH 10 (in press)

Forest restoration under REDD+ available

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Approaches to classifying and restoring degraded tropical forests for the anticipated REDD+ climate change mitigation mechanism
Authors: Sasaki N, Asner GP, Knorr W, Durst PB, Priyadi H, Putz FE,
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Inclusion of improved forest management as a way to enhance carbon sinks in the Copenhagen Accord of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (December 2009) suggests that forest restoration will play a role in global climate change mitigation under the post-Kyoto agreement. Although discussions about restoration strategies often pertain solely to severely degraded tropical forests and invoke only the enrichment planting option, different approaches to restoration are needed to counter the full range of degrees of degradation. We propose approaches for restoration of forests that range from being slightly to severely degraded. Our methods start with ceasing the causes of degradation and letting forests regenerate on their own, progress through active management of natural regeneration in degraded areas to accelerate tree regeneration and growth, and finally include the stage of degradation at which re-planting is necessary. We argue that when the appropriate techniques are employed, forest restoration is cost-effective relative to conventional planting, provides abundant social and ecological co-benefits, and results in the sequestration of substantial amounts of carbon. For forest restoration efforts to succeed, a supportive post-Kyoto agreement is needed as well as appropriate national policies, institutional arrangements, and local participation.

Citation: Sasaki N, Asner GP, Knorr W, Durst PB, Priyadi H, Putz FE, 2011. Approaches to classifying and restoring degraded tropical forests for the anticipated REDD+ climate change mitigation mechanism. iForest 0: 0-0 [online 0000-00-00] URL: http://www.sisef.it/iforest/show.php?id=556

Just Accepted “Approaches to Classifying and Restoring Degraded Tropical Forests for the Anticipated REDD+ Climate Change Mitigation Mechanism”

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Author: Sasaki, N., et al. (2010)

Inclusion of improved forest management as a way to enhance carbon sinks in the Copenhagen Accord of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (December 2009) suggests that forest restoration will play a role in global climate change mitigation under the post-Kyoto agreement. Although discussions about restoration strategies often pertain solely to severely degraded tropical forests and invoke only the enrichment planting option, different approaches to restoration are needed to counter the full range of degrees of degradation. We propose approaches for restoration of forests that range from being slightly to severely degraded. Our methods start with ceasing the causes of degradation and letting forests regenerate on their own, progress through active management of natural regeneration in degraded areas to accelerate tree regeneration and growth, and finally include the stage of degradation at which re-planting is necessary. We argue that when the appropriate techniques are employed, forest restoration is cost-effective relative to conventional planting, provides abundant social and ecological co-benefits, and results in the sequestration of substantial amounts of carbon. For forest restoration efforts to succeed, a supportive post-Kyoto agreement is needed as well as appropriate national policies, institutional arrangements, and local participation.

Full paper can be downloaded here (pre-print).

Potential Carbon Sinks in Tropical Forests under the REDD+ Mechanism

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<under reviews>

Author: Nophea Sasaki

Abstract

Accounting for up to 25% of global carbon emissions, tropical deforestation and forest degradation have increasingly brought international attention. The recognition of reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, promoting sustainable forest management, and enhancing carbon sinks in tropical forests (REDD+) in the Copenhagen Accord and the pledge of $3.5 billion fast-start fund for REDD+ activities suggests that new approaches to tropical forest management become necessary. As REDD+ involves the carbon-based financial compensation, avoided carbon emissions from the forests needs to be assessed. Here, we develop a carbon stock model for projecting carbon stock changes under two management scenarios, namely the business-as-usual (baseline) and REDD+ management. Baseline scenario is the conventional logging practice (CVL) without proper planning and trained staff, while REDD+ involves well-planned logging and the adoption of reduced impact logging plus liberation treatment (RIL+). Our results suggest that REDD+ management option could avoid carbon emissions of 2.06 MgC ha-1 at the start of management to 36.76-54.26 MgC ha-1 at the year 60 of management. The REDD+ revenues could be realized if REDD+ agreements are reached at the coming UNFCCC meeting or if carbon market is established.

New Paper: REDD Development in Cambodia – Potential Carbon Emission Reductions in a REDD Project

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Authors: Sokhun Ty, Nophea Sasaki, Abu Hassan Ahmad, and Zainal Ariffin Ahmad

Abstract

Foreseeing the importance of managing forests for climate change mitigation and sustainable development, the Royal Government of Cambodia has put strong commitment to managing its remaining forests under the new anticipated international climate change agreement on REDD+ mechanism. Forestry Administration in collaboration with Community Forestry International, and Terra Global Capital started a REDD project for Community Forestry sites in the northern province of Oddar Meanchey in 2007. Here, we report the methods and findings from our project and propose an appropriate framework for effective implementation in Cambodia. Ten drivers and six agents of deforestation and forest degradation were identified and each driver could be reduced by adopting appropriate project actions. Changes in deforestation, carbon stocks, and project emissions were estimated under baseline and project scenarios. Our results suggest that the project is likely to lead to the reduction of about 8.6 million tonne CO2 over 30-year project. Although policies and methods are available for implementing the project, sustained commitment and law enforcement play an increasingly important role in achieving real emission reduction and sustainable development.